LUCKNOW CALLING

Priyanka Gandhi

Early in the month of July, the Housing Ministry of the Central Government served an order to Congress leader Priyanka Gandhi, cancelling the allotment of the Lodhi Estate house in Delhi, which she has been occupying for last 23 years. As expected, the BJP justified the decision, pointing out that the Gandhis, considered to be the first family of Indian politics, no longer enjoy the Special Protection Guard (SPG) protection after the Act was amended in Dec 2019 to cover only the family members of the incumbent and former PMs. The Congress went out all guns blazing; accusing the Modi government of vendetta politics and calling the move a sustained effort on the part of the Modi-Shah duo to target its top brass personally.

On her part, it seems as though Priyanka was anyway planning to shift out of Delhi with reports suggesting that she was due to move to Lucknow so that she could take her job as the party general secretary in charge of UP more seriously. The outbreak of the Corona pandemic seems to have postponed her plan, till the BJP decided to show the more hardcore elements of its core electorate that it would not go soft on the Gandhis. On the part of the INC, they have decided to milk the situation, accusing the government of witch hunt against the younger Gandhi who has been quite vocal in her criticism of the Yogi regime in Uttar Pradesh, and in the process, earn some sympathy for its High Command which has seen its stocks plummet to low time low.

Ever since the drubbing it got in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the grand old party, has largely been on the back foot at the center, the imbroglio surrounding Rahul Gandhi’s re-appointment as the President, only making the matters worse. Under these circumstances when the party has not been able to corner the government in spite of its mishandling of the Covid situation in the country and recent clashes at the China border, Priyanka’s decision to shift base to Lucknow and help build the party in India’s most important state is certainly a step in the right direction, for the following reasons:

(1) The Gandhis are serious about UP, finally: Though Uttar Pradesh has been the home turf of the Gandhis, they seem to have some how lost touch with the state, post the Indira Gandhi era. The party has become irrelevant outside the pocket boroughs of Rae Bareli and Amethi, ceding ground, first to the BJP during the Babri Masjid demolition movement and then to the two main regional players – the Mulayum Singh & Akhilesh Yadav led Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Mayawati lead Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP); in fact, in the last national polls, BJP leader Smriti Irani even managed to wrest Amethi from the then Congress President Rahul Gandhi.

With Priyanka being one of the main weapon’s in the Congress’ arsenal for the time being, her impending move to Lucknow is a clear indication that the party means business in UP and will put its entire might to put up a good show in the 2022 state polls.

(2) A complete overhaul of the UP Congress: With the party being out of power in Lucknow since 1989, in many parts of the big state, the Congress cadre is non-existent and most of its one-time big wigs have moved on to rival camps. As seen in the 2017 state elections where it happily agreed to play a junior partner to the SP, it seemed until now that the Congress had given up all hopes, resigning to the fact that it was not a serious contender for UP anymore.

With a Gandhi scion taking hold of the reins of the party in UP, it is expected that Priyanka would usher in a series of much delayed and much needed reforms to stop the rot in the UPCC (Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee) and help rebuild the party organization, from the scratch, quite literally. Moreover, for quite some time now, she had been taking on the Yogi government on its alleged failures to provide good governance to the people. Shifting base to UP, not only gives more vigor to her barbs against the state government but is also expected to enthuse the ordinary Congress karya karta right in time for the state polls, scheduled to be held in 20 months.

In fact, she can take some inspiration from bitter rival Amit Shah who as the head of BJP state unit helped the party and its allies won a staggering 73 out of the 80 seats in the 2014 polls that saw Modi sweep to power while the Congress was reduced to its worst ever performance of 44 seats at the national level. Prior to his arrival in UP, BJP's position in the state was just a little better than what the Congress finds itself in as of now; Shah rebuilt the party, taking lots of tough decisions that ultimately paid off. Congress sympathizers are definitely hoping for such a show from Priyanka.

(3) The Division of Power: Ever since Rahul entered electoral politics, there have been accusations of there being multiple power centers within the Congress that severely curtails its ability to take quick decisions vis-a-vis the BJP where Modi’s diktat reigns supreme. It is known that the Congress is split into two camps, the old timers swearing loyalty to Sonia and the young Turks pledging allegiance to Rahul. Of late, with Priyanka taking a more active interest in politics, many feared that a new third camp may emerge, especially with Rahul finding hard to win elections for the party. Priyanka’s move to Lucknow and Rahul taking back reins from Sonia will certainly be a step that could clear a lot of the mess regarding decision making in the Congress. Rahul would be free to take decisions at the Centre and concentrate on cornering the Modi government while Priyanka, as his trusted lieutenant can help revive the party fortunes in UP.

Priyanka’s choice of residence in UP’s capital city is laced with all sorts of symbolism; she has decided to move into the vacant house owned by Late Sheila Kaul, the sister-in-law of Jawahar Nehru. What makes the house more special is that it was here that Gandhiji and Nehru had planted a tree together way back in the 1930s. Don’t be surprised if you see Priyanka’s social media feed flooded with images of this tree in the run up to the 2022 state polls in a bid to invoke the Nehru-Gandhi legacy of the Congress.

Overall, Priyanka’s move to Lucknow certainly seems to be a step in the right direction. If she can put her political acumen and charisma to good use, she can put the party on a firm footing in UP, while keeping the Yogi government on tenterhooks. If she can get back the traditional Congress vote banks of Brahmins, Muslims and Dalits that they have lost to BJP, SP and the BSP respectively, then the party can hopefully see a revival of fortunes in the big state. In fact, the Congress should take the gamble, announce Priyanka Gandhi as its CM nominee, thereby raising the stakes. The move may or may not pay off, but then, as they say, ‘Fortune favors the Brave’. It could just be the move that could spark off a Congress revival on India's political landscape.

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CAPTAIN KEEN TO LEAD IN 2022

Capt. Amarinder Singh

Addressing a press conference to mark the third anniversary of his government, Punjab CM Captain Amarinder Singh has clarified that he would lead the Congress from the front even in the next state elections. This in spite of the fact that during the poll campaign for the 2017 elections, the erstwhile Patiala royal had declared that it would be his last electoral contest. You generally do not expect politicians to keep up their words and thank god, Amarinder has proved to be no exception. Though one may be tempted to brush aside Singh's words considering that the next state elections are still two years away, there is certainly more to it, especially when seen in the context of the turmoil that has been going through in the Congress ever since the debacle of 2014.

The Singh v/s Sidhu tussle: For years now, Captain Amarinder Singh has been the face of the Congress in the north-western state. After seeing off the rebellion by Rajinder Kaur Bhattal in the early 2000s, he has been the undisputed numero uno in the party's pecking order, even enjoying the complete favor of the party high command in Delhi. However, the entry of former cricketer turned politician Navjot Singh Sidhu into the INC has changed the equations to some extent. Apart from age, the former Amritsar MP reportedly has the active backing of Congress Vice President Priyanka Gandhi, the one factor that can make or break things in the grand old party. No wonder then that the former Amritsar MP was given the charge of Tourism in Captain's cabinet.

However, a series of misadventures on Sidhu's part including his attendance of Pakistani PM Imran Khan's oath taking ceremony gave the Punjab CM the opportunity to cut the former to size. Sidhu was publicly reprimanded by captain on several occasions before being unceremoniously dropped from the cabinet altogether. And all this while, there was no objection raised, at least publicly, by the Gandhis completely aware that any rap on Amarinder's knuckles might adversely affect the Congress' chances in one of the few states where its stocks are soaring. Lately, there was some talk that Priyanka Gandhi who had met Sidhu in Delhi earlier this month had promised to give him a 'very important' role in the 2022 poll campaign. However, Singh's announcement of leading the party for the next elections is perhaps, Captain's pre-preemptive strike. He is not handing over to Sidhu, come what may.

Old Guards v/s Young Turks: When the Congress won the 2004 polls against the prediction of most political pundits in the country, many had attributed the victory to the right balance of experience and youth within the INC. Fifteen years down the line, it is this very divide that today threatens to destroy whatever little is left of it. Ever since Rahul Gandhi stepped down as the President of the Congress, the fortunes of the young brigade seems to be waning. Former Mumbai MP Milind Deora is sulking for a while; Sachin Pilot is not exactly on good terms with Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot whereas Rahul's closest aide Jyotiraditya Scindia is today firmly in the saffron camp, heaping praises on Modi and Shah. Meanwhile, the veterans who had lost most of their political heft during the days of junior Gandhi are using this opportunity to stage a comeback with the party's power structure.

Quite obviously, this fact is not lost on Amarinder Singh either who is an old timer. To add to it, Sidhu, his only 'young' challenger within the party has scored too many self goals and Captain has been quick to capitalize on them, reprimanding his former cabinet colleague several times for his actions and statements. With each shot that he has taken at his adversary, Singh's position has become stronger. Captain's words, therefore must be also seen as a continuation of the generational war ragging in the Congress, with the odds being in favor of the old guard for the time being.

The Rise of Regional Satraps in the INC: Ever since Indira Gandhi came back to power post the infamous Emergency, there was a systematic attempt by the Congress High Command to cut powerful regional leaders to size, a policy that was later continued by Rajiv and Sonia. State leaders with significant mass base were denied the post of Chief Minister whereas the post was generally filled with sycophants who would cater to the whims and fancies of New Delhi and were dependent on the Gandhi brand value for their political survival. While this may have worked earlier, the rise of Modi has somehow taken the sheen away from the Congress' first family. Unfortunately for the INC, absence of local leaders with a strong ground network and popular support base has meant that it finds itself behind the BJP and regional players is most Indian states. Not only does this affect the party's finances considering that it has been out of the Union government for two terms, it also reduces its ability to send some of its best orators to Rajya Sabha.

A look at the party's situation today shows that it has only three strong state leaders - Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan, Siddaramaih in Karnataka and Amarinder Singh in Punjab. To add to it, the 78 year old leader's popularity is at a all time high. The Akalis are still licking their wounds; the disastrous defeat in the 2017 state polls had been a body blow and it will take some time for the Badals to recover from it. The AAP has failed to expand its voter base in the state. With a second consecutive term looking assured as of now, Captain Saab would want to grace the CM's chair for the fourth time whereas the High Command, no matter how sympathetic it is to Sidhu's cause, would have no option but to stick with Captain.

Two years is a long time in politics. However, don't be surprised if Captain will lead the Congress in the 2022 polls. Most likely, the 'important' position that Priyanka seems to have promised Sidhu would be that of one of the party's star campaigners and the former cricketer would be expected to win over voters for his in-party rival with his witty jokes.

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MEHBOOBA'S ACID TEST

Mehbooba (right) with father Mufti Mohammad

By-polls to state legislatures are seldom interesting and seven out of ten times, it is the ruling party that wins them, either due to their own popularity or to put it lightly, by 'effective' use of the state machinery. Either way, the odds get stacked into the favor of the ruling party all the more if they have completed less than half of their full term. Considering this, Mehbooba Mufti who is contesting as a PDP candidate from the Anantnag assembly seat scheduled for June 22 should not have much to worry about. Moreover, since she is the heir to the legacy of Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, one of the tallest political leaders of Kashmir and the fact that she is herself serving as the Chief Minister, should make her task all the more easy.

However, the shrewd political leader that she is, the junior Mufti knows that her victory in the by-polls is far from assured. Though chances of her losing are bleak, waning personal popularity, deteriorating law and order situation in the Valley as well as dissatisfaction amongst the Kashmiris around the PDP's alliance with the BJP means that Mehbooba just cannot afford to be complacent. Irrespective of the results, the outcome of the Anantnag by-polls is going to have a major impact on the political career of independent India's second Muslim woman Chief Minister.

Year	Event
1996	Elected to state legislature from Bijbehara constituency as a Congress candidate
1999	Left Congress to join PDP floated by her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed
	Lost Parliamentary elections from Srinagar to Omar Abdullah of NC
2002	Elected to state legislature from Pahalgam constituency
2004	Won Parliamentary elections from Anantnag
2014	Won Parliamentary elections from Anantnag
2016	Took oath as the Chief Minister of Jammu Kashmir

The Anantnag assembly segment fell vacant following the demise of former CM Mufti Mohammad Sayeed on January 7 earlier this year in New Delhi. His daughter and incumbent CM Mehbooba who is representing South Kashmir in the Parliament has six months to get elected to either the state legislative assembly or the legislative council to be able to continue in the office. In her maiden term, the PDP supremo's performance has been far from satisfactory. After keeping the BJP guessing for months, she took the oath as the state's ninth CM in April in spite of the fact that the Modi regime at Centre refused to accept any of her demands for special privileges to be extended to the northern state and its people. In the last few months, spiraling violence, rise in militancy and differences with her ally - the BJP on a wide range of issues has put her on the back foot. The firebrand leader appears to be have mellowed down a bit, as she settles into her role as the Chief Minister; her famed ability to connect with the ordinary Kashmiri on the street seems to be deserting her.

Anti-Incumbency: The poor attendance at the funeral of her father, late Mufti Mohammad Sayeed was a sure indication that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) which had swept the Valley in the 2014 polls is fast losing its appeal amongst the masses. Mehbooba tried to overcome some of this anger against her family and her party by making the BJP wait before she took over the reins of the government. However, the move has not helped her politically, at least to the extent that she had hoped to. The dissatisfaction with her regime has only been compounded by months of deteriorating law and order situation and the spate in terror attacks. Though South Kashmir has generally been the stronghold of the Mufti family, almost everyone agrees that unlike previous polls, a victory in the Anantnag assembly segment is not going to be a cake walk for Mehbooba.

The PDP-BJP Alliance: The PDP's alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has not gone well with the Kashmiris. Though BJP leader Atal Bihari Vajpayee may have been a widely admired figure in the Valley, the saffron outfit continues to be looked upon as 'communal' and 'anti-Kashmiri'. In fact, the BJP's views on Article 370, the revocation of the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA), its tough stance on the 'separatists', its anti-Pakistan rhetoric and the beef controversy has left most people in the region worried. Besides, a good number of leaders in the PDP top brass are said to be uncomfortable with this marriage of convenience between the two parties. The tie up with the national party is for sure, going to affect the voter base of the PDP. Of course, one could argue that the Muftis had no option but to join hands with the BJP following the fractured mandate of 2014. But then, there is no doubt that this will play on the minds of the Anantnag voter as he casts his/her vote on June 22. With the BJP offering to campaign for the CM, it remains to be seen if she accepts the saffron camp's offer or not.

Fractured Opposition: In all this though, there is one major silver lining for Mehbooba which in the end could decide whether she passes this 'acid test' or not. Though independent legislator and a fierce critic of the PDP-BJP alliance Sheikh Abdul Rasheed, better known as 'Engineer' Rasheed has opted out of the race, there are still seven other candidates in the fray. The National Conference has nominated Iftikar Hussain Misgar who lost to Mufti Sayeed in 2014 polls whereas Congress has nominated Hilal Ahmad Shah for the seat. Besides, there are five more independents who have thrown their hat in the ring. With the Opposition votes divided, Mehbooba should be able to scrap through in spite of a strong anti-incumbency wave.

What if Scenarios: June 25 is going to be an important day in the political career of the lawyer turned politician who is trying to emerge out of the shadows of her late father and assert herself on the political stage.

A victory, with say over 8,000 votes will give her the kind of political thrust that she so desperately needs. The cynicism around her abilities to lead the state will be put to rest for the time being and her alliance with the BJP will get some sort of 'legitimacy', however limited it may be. Moreover, all murmurs amongst the cadre for splitting with the saffron camp will be all but over.

A win with less than 5,000 votes though will at least force her to rethink her alliance with the BJP, though she is unlikely to call it off as of now. At the same time though, the anti-BJP block within the PDP will get a lot of ammunition.

A defeat though will be disastrously; not only will she be forced to resign from the post of CM, she would have not option but to break her partnership with the saffronists in a bid to protect whatever is left of her support base in the Valley.

Fifty seven year old Mehbooba has fought many a political battles in the past, winning most and losing a few. However, the upcoming polls to the Anantnag segment, her first since becoming the Chief Minister of Jammu Kashmir could well be her toughest battle till date.

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WILL THE LOTUS BLOOM IN ASSAM

After the rout in Delhi followed by the ignominious defeat at the hands of the Grand Alliance in Bihar, the Modi bandwagon has all but lost its steam; in fact, after a brilliant 2014, the best in the history of the saffron outfit so far, the year 2015 has been one that the BJP would like to put behind, quite literally. The political setbacks apart, the intolerance debate, the Parliamentary logjam and the inability of the Modi regime to bring in the much hyped 'Acche Din', has to a substantial extent, hit the ratings of the Prime Minister and his party. To be frank, in 2016 too, things do not seem to be particularly good for the saffronists; of the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls, the party has meagre presence in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bengal and Pondicherry which is unlikely to yield any significant political gains. The BJP is looking for one electoral victory to break the jinx and perhaps the state that could offer them an opportunity to do so is Assam.

Can the BJP storm the Congress bastion: In the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won half of the 14 parliamentary seats from the state thanks to the Modi magic, its best performance in Assam so far. In February, the following year, the saffron outfit made further gains in the north eastern state as it won 38 of the 74 municipal boards and town committees, leaving the Congress with just 17. The writing on the wall is pretty clear. The saffron outfit is now, for the first time in its history, the most popular party in Assam. It is all set to win a simple majority or at least finish as the single largest party in the state albeit it shoots itself in the foot, something that the BJP is quite capable of, as seen earlier.

PM Modi at a rally in Assam in 2014

Unlike the Delhi and Bihar elections wherein the saffron outfit was challenging strong regional players, here in Assam, the odds are stacked in its favor. It is a known fact that the BJP does well whenever it is pitted against the Congress. And to make matters worse for the grand old party, it is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave having been in power for three straight terms.

However, the BJP is not taking any chances. In a bid to further boost its chances, it has roped in the BPF (Bodoland People's Front) into a pre poll alliance which has a significant vote base in 16 assembly segments that form a part of the Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD), apart from having some influence with sections of voters in another 14 seats. Talks are set to be in process even with former ally - the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

Most importantly, in a move that is different from the general norm in the Modi Era, the party has anointed Union Minister and MP Sarbanada Sonorwal as its Chief ministerial candidate for the Assam polls. Belonging to the electorally influential Scheduled Tribe (ST) community, he is known for his clean image. Moreover, a host of leaders, primarily from the Congress and the AGP have joined the BJP in the last few months. Amongst them is Himanta Biswa Sarma, once believed to be incumbent CM Tarun Gogoi's right hand man who has shifted base to the saffron camp after his CM ambitions were not fulfilled in the INC in spite of a long drawn revolt.

The Challenges in Store: For all those who thought that Assam would be a cake walk for the BJP, painting the north eastern state in saffron is not going to be an easy task. For once, the party is fighting history; it has never been able to form a government in Dispur in the past. Even in the last state assembly polls, it could get just five seats. With the Modi wave all but gone, it remains to be seen if the people of Assam will repose their faith in the state BJP leadership.

BJP's CM candidate Sarbanada Sonorwal

Perhaps, the biggest head ache for the party ahead of the polls is the fact that many of the promises it made during its parliamentary campaign in 2014 have remain unfulfilled. The Land Accord with Bangladesh continues to be an emotive issue and has not gone on well with some people whereas no concrete steps have been taken to deport illegal immigrants from the state. The promise of including several communities in the Scheduled Tribes category too has not yet fructified. Besides, the Congress is aggressively wooing the tea workers who are electorally influential in many areas of the state. And then, there is the fear of an alliance between the Congress and the AIUDF which could help consolidate the minority votes against the BJP. Lastly, the saffronists have to consider the aspirations of many leaders who have joined them lately while making sure that those of old timers and loyalists are not compromised; striking such a balance could be the key in wining a majority in the state and forming a stable government for a full term.

The importance of Assam for the BJP: The PM and more so, BJP President Amit Shah desperately need a political victory to break the spate of reverses in the recent past. Assam is all the more important since the party is in no position to win any of the other four states that go to the polls this year. A win here would nonetheless infuse some enthusiasm amongst the cadres, especially ahead of 2017 when the party will be battling for the all important state of Uttar Pradesh.

Himanta Biswa Sarma

Secondly, an important aspect of Modi government's foreign affairs is the 'Look East' policy. With Assam being one of the largest states in the eastern part of the country, it is essential for the BJP to be in power here to fulfill the PM's agenda. Over the last two years, ever since the BJP came to power at the Centre, the relations between Delhi and Dispur have never been cordial, with Modi and Gogoi taking regular pot shots at each other. A saffron regime in Assam will ease this and help BJP implement its 'vision' for the welfare of the state; if party sources are to be believed, this, apparently is not possible till the Congress remains in power in Dispur.

Last but not the least, for BJP President Amit Shah's dream of a 'Congress mukht' Bharat to come true, it is essential for the saffronists to make in roads into north eastern India, where it traditional has been a fringe player. For this dream to be realized, Assam holds the key considering that it borders six other states in the region. A BJP government here will help it expand across borders into Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. No wonder then, the BJP will come out all guns blazing in the fight for Assam.

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ASSAM POLLS: LET THE BATTLE BEGIN

Sonowal with PM Modi and Biswa

After an incredible 2014, the once 'unstoppable' Modi bandwagon was completely halted after back to back electoral defeats, first in Delhi and then in Bihar. The 'intolerance' debate, rising food prices, the logjam in the Parliament and the subsequent inability of the NDA government to initiate much awaited reforms have certainly hit the popularity of the PM and his party. Modi for sure knows that perhaps the only way to regain some of the lost pride is by registering a major political victory; out of the five states that are schedule to go for polls in 2016, the one where the saffron camp is fancying its chances is the north-eastern state of Assam, wherein the BJP won half of the fourteen parliamentary seats in the last General Polls held in 2014.

In what has become a norm within the BJP in the NaMo era, the party's campaign was kick started by the PM when he addressed a rally in Kokrajhar in western Assam in January where he urged the people to give his party a chance to form a government at Dispur. Earlier this week, he also attended a meeting of tea workers who form a substantial chunk of voters where he famously blamed the Gandhis for holding up key legislation that he claimed would help the people of the state.

Meanwhile, the BJP seems to have learnt its lessons from the debacle in Bihar and Delhi. Sarbananda Sonowal, the Union Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs representing Lakhimpur in the Lok Sabha has been anointed to lead the saffron camp for the upcoming polls. The entry of Himanta Biswa Sarma who was once considered to be close to incumbent CM Tarun Gogoi into the party fold has added to its chances of winning. With the elections expected to be a close contest, the tie up with the BPF (Bodoland People's Front) which has considerable clout in the autonomous councils in the north-eastern state is expected to bring in more acceptance to the BJP which has never ruled Assam. On top of these positives is of course the massive anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress which the BJP could easily leverage to its advantage. Unless it does something really 'stupid', the saffron camp is all set to create history by forming its first government in Dispur or at least emerge as the single largest party in the legislative assembly in case of a fractured mandate.

CM Tarun Gogoi at an election rally

On the other hand, the Congress camp is feeling 'jittery' ahead of the elections. Having been in power in the state for three consecutive terms, CM Tarun Gogoi is facing the heat even as he tries to set the stage for his son Gaurav to succeed him, upholding a long time Congress tradition. The rout in the General Elections followed by a dismal performance in the municipal polls has adversely affected cadre morale; the departure of Biswa, once considered the blue-eyed boy of Gogoi has further dented their chances. However, some believe that this could well be a blessing in disguise since it could rid the party of factionalism, credited by many to be the real reason for the mess that the grand old party finds itself in its stronghold.

However, speaking at a press conference after PM Modi's January rally, Gogoi seemed to be confident of his party winning a straight fourth term in the state. In fact, what he was suggesting is perhaps the only way for the Congress to somehow hang on to power in Assam; if the INC can manage to build a grand alliance, the way Nitish and Lalu did in Bihar, then it has a very good chance of at least keeping the BJP at bay. Even if a formal pre-poll tie up with 'like-minded' parties is not possible, a well thought out strategy to defeat the BJP could also do the trick. But then, are the AGP and the AIUDF ready to be a part of such a formation, either formally or informally is something that will be clear in the next few weeks.

Badruddin Ajmal 

The joker in the pack is the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front) which has been constantly improving its performance in the state over the last decade. Floated by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, the regional outfit which has a substantial voter base in the southern parts of Assam finished as the second largest party in the last state polls with 18 seats and then ended up with a tally of three in the parliamentary elections. As of now, the party has not responded to calls to form an anti-BJP front in Assam ahead of the polls. Most observers believe that the party is keeping its options open. In case of a hung assembly, it could end up becoming the 'king maker'. With this in mind, the AIUDF is concentrating on reaching out beyond its traditional vote base comprising of minority votes so that it can maximize its results.

Once a major political player in the state, the AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) is being wooed aggressively, both by the BJP and the Congress for a pre-poll tie up. However, as of now, the party has managed to stay away from both the national parties. The upcoming elections though are a litmus test for the AGP. Though it was in power for two terms in the state in the past, its popularity continues to be at an all time low and most of its leaders and cadre have shifted base to other outfits. No wonder, the party is trying to use the polls as an opportunity to stage a major comeback and regain some of its lost glory. Will the AGP succeed in its endeavor or will it sink further into political oblivion is something that remains to be seen.

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2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

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BIHAR: THE VERDICT

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

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THE POLITICAL PARIAH

Rahul Gandhi - Facebook

He came, he saw, he spoke but did he conquer? While he might still have been able to charm the audience while addressing a rally in Western Champaran in mid-September, the absence of regional heavyweights including incumbent CM Nitish Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad Yadav proves that the Congress Vice President is still to rub off the tag of being a 'pariah' (outsider) in political circles. The grand old party tried to brush this issue under the carpet by stating that the Amethi MP was in the poll bound state not for campaigning but to participate in the INC's celebration of Ambedkar's 125^th birth anniversary. Though the younger Gandhi did his best, accusing the Modi government of failing to fulfill most of its electoral promises, the absence of the big names from the grand alliance on the dais took the sheen out of the rally even before it began. Although the JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar did receive RaGa at the Patna airport, he excused himself from being seen with the Gandhi scion citing ticket distribution, which as per the detractors was just a ploy. Meanwhile, Lalu preferred to stay away too; his younger son Tejaswi represented the RJD at the rally. From the ruling party, it was Rajya Sabha and senior leader K C Tyagi who accompanied Rahul Gandhi at the September 19^th rally.

It is well-known that the Congress VP and the former Bihar CM Lalu Yadav have a little bit of history between them; many will remember that it was Rahul who famously tore the Ordinance introduced by the previous Manmohan Singh led UPA II regime allowing convicted legislators to continue in their post. With the Congress' move to protect its former ally going down the drain, the Lalu-Rahul relations were spoiled forever. Of course, this should not have been a surprise at all for either the Congress or its leader. However, what would have hurt for sure is the absence of Nitish Kumar. We very well know that the Amethi MP is a big admirer of the JD-U chief. Even while the latter was an integral part of the NDA, RaGa had asked him to shun the 'communal' BJP and join the UPA. It is also believed that he was in favor of an alliance with Kumar for the 2014 General Elections but it was his mother who prevailed and the INC joined hands with the RJD. With the negative publicity surrounding Gandhi yet to die down, Kumar seems to be playing safe and rightly so; besides, unlike the Congress leader who has virtually nothing to lose in Bihar, for the CM, the upcoming polls is for sure is going to be a 'do or die' scenario.

I wrote a blog post a few months ago (Link) citing what the Amethi MP needs to do in my opinion to 're-brand' himself so that he is taken seriously, both by the electorate and by people within political circles. I must say, that in the last few months, the Congress VP has done really well; he is seen more often in the Parliament nowadays. He is seen taking a more hard line, criticizing the Modi government at every given opportunity. In fact, if party sources are to be believed, the washout of the monsoon session of the Lower House was largely his idea. Most importantly, he is seen taking a stand on issues that matter to the people at large. Be it net neutrality, OROP or the Land Bill, he is seen in the midst of the action of late which is certainly a plus. However the snub by senior regional leaders indicates that there seems to be a lot more that RaGa needs to do.

The last point that I made in that post - collaboration with other non-NDA leaders is something where there is a lot more for Rahul to work upon. I thought that the Bihar elections where the Congress is fighting in alliance with the JD-U and the RJD would be a superb opportunity for the younger Gandhi to strike a working relationship with other non-BJP parties. If the reports coming out of the state are anything to go by, that certainly does not seem to be the case. As of now, Nitish and Lalu have kept a safe distance from junior Gandhi. Perhaps, for things to change and such 'embarrassments' to be avoided in the future, the Amethi MP and his party need to end their drought and start winning some polls. Certainly, Bihar where the INC is a part of a grand coalition, could be the state from where the RaGa bandwagon starts rolling. In that case, apart from deciding the fate of Nitish & Co, Bihar 2015 could be the launch pad for the revival of the Congress and its crown prince Rahul Gandhi.

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THE TRUMP CARD

Asaduddin Owaisi - Facebook

Will he jump into the electoral fray, like he did in state elections to the Maharashtra state assembly in 2014 or will he stay away from it, leaving it for the two main coalitions to battle it out for the the all important state of Bihar? And if he does, what impact will it have on the prospects of the NDA and the JD-U led 'Mahagatbandhan' who are doing their best to drum up support in an electorate which as history suggests is divided along the lines of caste and religion, each fiercely loyal to one or the other outfit. The AIMIM president and the Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi put all the speculations to rest last week when he announced that his party would be nominating candidates from twenty four assembly seats in the Seemanchal region. With the controversial Muslim leader making his intentions clear in context of the upcoming state polls, political pundits are busy analyzing how Owaisi's decision would change the electoral fortunes in Bihar where the recent political realignment of forces has made the elections one of the most keenly contested battles since May 2014.

Owaisi - the new Messiah of the Muslims: While it might be extremely difficult to predict the impact of this move on the final outcome at this juncture, it is much easy to see why Owaisi arrived at this particular decision. Muslims, who are the AIMIM's target vote bank comprise of nearly 17 percent of the state's total population, most of whom are concentrated in the four districts in the state's north eastern region, the Seemanchal. Though it may lack grass root organization, the outfit is relying solely on the presence of such large percentage of Muslim voters as well as the appeal of its charismatic leader to open its account.

Of late, the Hyderabad MP has come in for a lot of flake for 'openly playing the minority card' with some even comparing him to Mohammed Ali Jinnah, the man who is held responsible by many Indians for the partition of the sub-continent. I personally find a lot of hypocrisy in this argument. Mixing politics with religion is unfortunately one of the dark realities of our times and the AIMIM is certainly not the first party to do it. Right wing outfits including the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Akalis have been wooing specific religious groups throughout their history. On the other hand, parties like the Congress, the RJD and the SP - the 'self-proclaimed' upholders of minority rights have done very little for their upliftment. The great irony of our political system is that the Muslims are seen as a vote bank that needs to be either offended or appeased to win elections, based on which side of the political divide you are on. As such, they continue to be one of the most neglected communities in the country today.

This is exactly where leaders like Owaisi are trying to pitch in so that they can leverage the situation. In his fiery and often provocative speeches, he also talks about development, elevation of poverty within the community and promises jobs for the youth. This is clearly striking a chord with younger Muslims who are fed up of being over looked by the parties for long.

Set back to the 'Secular' alliance: With the coming together of former rivals - Nitish, Lalu as well as the Congress, it was expected that the Muslim voters would consolidate in favor of the 'Mahagatbandhan' in its fight versus the Modi led NDA. Lalu was the darling of the Muslims ever since he stalled Lal Krishna Advani's Rath Yatra during the Ram Janmabhoomi agitation in the early nineties. It was on the basis of the M-Y combination that the RJD leader emerged as the pre-eminent political leader in Bihar. So dear was this community to his successor and former foe Nitish Kumar of the JD-U that he jeopardized his own political career in a bid to appease them after Narendra Modi was named the NDA's PM nominee in 2013, breaking off all ties with the BJP. Minority appeasement, even at the cost of hurting the interests of the majority has been a hallmark of the politics practiced by the grand old party for past six decades. As such, the alliance was poised to gain the most of the over 15 per cent minority votes.

This was before Owaisi decided to try his luck in Bihar. With the AIMIM contesting from the Seemanchal, there is no doubt that the Muslim outfit is going to eat into the vote share of the mega coalition, hurting its chances in areas where it was expected to sweep. It remains to be seen what impact the Hyderabad MP will have in a state where his party is debuting. However, the outcome of the Maharashtra state polls should be enough to give nightmares to the likes of Nitish and Lalu. In the elections to the western state's assembly held about an year ago, Owaisi nominated 26 candidates of which only two made the cut. At several segments, AIMIM candidates split the Muslim votes which would have otherwise gone to the Congress or the NCP, thereby helping the BJP. In a close contest like this one where every seat counts, the splitting of the minority votes could turn out to be the game changer, helping the NDA steal a march over the regional alliance.

Will BJP go into the 'Self destruction' mode? The general opinion seems to be that the entry of AIMIM should ultimately benefit the NDA since he will eat into the mega coalition's vote share. Though Owaisi has called Modi, the RSS and the BJP as his primary enemy, there are murmurs of a conspiracy theory suggesting a tacit understanding between the saffron outfit and the Hyderabad MP for mutual benefit. While we may not know the truth behind these rumors for the time being, it is important for the BJP and other elements within the Sangh Parivaar to hold their nerves and not get too carried away after this development.

The BJP and its affiliates should learn lessons from the UP assembly by-polls of 2014 held in the aftermath of the Muzzaffarnagar riots. It is but natural that in wake of making an impact, the Hyderabad MP and his brother Akbaruddin Owaisi are going to make provocative speeches. It will be in the interest of saffronists to stick to the development agenda and not indulge in counter-allegations. Loose canons within the party ranks, particularly the likes of Giriraj Singh who is seen as a potential contender for the post of state's CM in case the NDA wins the polls should exercise constraint. While managing party leaders might be easy, handling those from the RSS and the VHP will be an arduous task within itself. If communal tensions simmer, it is but natural for the Muslims to rally behind the party or the coalition which is most likely to keep the NDA out of power, which in this case is not the AIMIM but the Nitish-Lalu combine.

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BBMP POLLS: ADVANTAGE BJP

A strong anti-incumbency wave not withstanding, the BJP managed to emerge as the largest party in the fifth largest civic body in the country as it finished with an impressive tally of 100, one more than the half way mark in spite of most poll pundits predicting an easy victory for the Congress. This was the saffron outfit's third consecutive win in local elections after it pipped the Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan earlier this month. Under fire from all quarters over Lalit Gate and the Vyapam Scam, this hat trick of wins will be a big morale booster for the saffron camp and its supporters. For the Congress which romped to power in the state in 2013, all its hopes of wrestling control of the Bruhat Bengaluru Mahanagar Pallike (BBMP) were dashed as it could muster just 76 seats. Meanwhile, for the JD-S which was expected to emerge as the King-Maker in case of a hung assembly, its future in the IT hub, like in the rest of the state seems to be bleak. Of course, with a complicated structure wherein the 13 MPs, 28 MLAs and 11 MLCs (total 250) too end up deciding the final outcome, it is still uncertain as to which party will form the next council in the city. Though the mandate seems to favor the BJP, it remains to be seen if backroom talks and negotiations between the former allies - the Congress and the JD-S can prevent the saffronists from retaining control of the BBMP.

Coming to the results, the BJP dropped eleven seats as compared to the last BBMP polls held in 2010 when it had finished with 111 seats. The Congress did well, increasing its tally from 65 to 76 but falling well short of the saffron outfit in the end. Fourteen nominees from the JD-S emerged victorious, a drop of one while 8 independents too made the cut. As far as the vote share is concerned, there was not much difference between the two parties. The BJP managed to get 40.45 % of the total votes polled, just a percent more than the INC; in a two sided contest like this, even a small difference in vote share can give a  big lead to one side in terms of numbers. From the perspective of the saffron camp, it was South Bengaluru that helped it in surging ahead in the Silicon city as it won a staggering 50 of the 76 wards from here. In the end, it was this massive lead that sealed the deal for the BJP. The Congress did relatively well in East Bengaluru, winning 20 of the 39 seats. In the other two ends of the city, the national parties were pretty much even-stevens.

The man of the moment for the BJP was R Ashoka, the MLA from Padmanabhanagar who had served as the deputy CM under the previous saffron regime in the state and was put in charge of the party's campaign in Bengaluru. In fact, the Vokkaliga leader was involved in every aspect of the polls and is believed to have hand picked the candidates. An experienced leader, he chalked out an effective strategy to retain control of the BBMP, employing the services of several incumbent MLAs and getting the city's three MPs and former CM B S Yeddyurappa to canvass for the party's nominees. The superlative performance of the BJP in wake of a rather mediocre report card of its previous council and the presence of a Congress government in the state is going to enhance the stature of the Padmanabhanagar MLA within the saffron ranks. Many are speculating that post the big win, he could be one of the front runners to lead the party in the state for the 2018 assembly elections. Unfortunately, for the party, it could still have to sit out in case of an unholy alliance between the Congress and JD-S with the support of independents, though such a scenario is highly unlikely. The big worry for the saffron outfit at the moment is that the tenure of 6 of its city MLCs ends in January 2016 and at present, it lacks the numbers in the state assembly to re-elect them.

For many, the victory for the BJP would have come in as a major surprise especially after the allegations of corruption and money laundering against several of its corporators. However, it is the Congress that needs to be blamed for cutting the strong anti-incumbency wave and handing over the BBMP to the saffron outfit on a platter. In spite of virtually governing the city for nearly an year, it failed to solve the problems that it had accused the BJP council of ignoring during its tenure including traffic woes and garbage disposition. Moreover, the Siddaramaiah government tried its best to postpone the civic polls for a long duration till the Supreme Court intervened and ordered it to hold the elections to the council within three months in a verdict delivered in May earlier this year. This was portrayed by the Opposition as Siddu's way of controlling the city while denying the citizens their right to chose their local governing body. While the delay tactics cut the saffron loses, the decision of the state government to trifurcate the BBMP seemed to have not pleased the electorate at all. In fact, the BJP had accused the INC of dividing Kempe Gowda's city for electoral gains.

While the results in the BBMP polls might make Ashoka one of the forerunners to lead BJP in the next state elections, for the incumbent CM Siddaramaiah, it was a clearly a major embarrassment. Firstly, he failed to keep up to his promise of improving the garbage situation in the city and the delay in holding the elections negatively impacted his image as one who did not care for the residents of the state's biggest city. Then, he committed the blunder of sidelining all other party leaders and heading the Congress' campaign in Bengaluru. Former CM S M Krishna, who continues to be very popular in the IT city for the various development schemes started during his tenure was kept away from campaigning. All party posters and banners carried the images of the CM along with nation leaders including Sonia Gandhi, Rahul Gandhi and Digvijay Singh. It was clear what the Varuna MLA was trying to portray; following the drubbing the Lok Sabha polls, he wanted to project a Congress win in the Silicon City as his own and answer his detractors within the INC. The move backfired, pretty badly. Though he refused to accept the results as a verdict against his government, there is no doubt that he will have a lot to answer in the coming days. Of course, all is not yet lost. An alliance with former partner the JD-S and the support of the 8 independents could push the coalition just over the line.

The Congress state unit in Karnataka is a divided house, split primarily into two factions - one backing Siddu and the others comprising of old timers who are opposed to the CM. Those belonging to the opposite camp have time and again accused the CM of being 'arrogant' and not taking others in account while taking key decisions. They regularly point to his affiliations with the JD-S prior to joining the Congress and hit out at him for playing 'partisan' politics. Following the defeat in the BBMP elections, this lobby is expected to get stronger. However, the big question is whether CM Siddamramaiah will be forced to resign in the near future. The answer, in my opinion is 'No'. With Karnataka being the only state where the INC is in power on its own, it will certainly not wish to send the wrong signal by revamping its leadership. Secondly, the Kuruba leader is the party's most popular face here. With S M Krishna in the eighties and Mallikarjuna Kharge acting as the party's leader in the Lower House of the Parliament, there is no other state leader of equal stature to be appointed to the post of the CM. And most importantly, from the Congress' perspective, Siddu continues to enjoy the unwavering backing of the party president Sonia Gandhi whose word within the INC is final.

Finally, for the party that boasts of an ex-PM and two ex-CMs within its ranks, the results could not have been worse. Speaking to the media post the announcement, former CM H D Kumaraswamy expressed deep unhappiness over the outcome in spite of all that his party was supposedly doing for the city. He even threatened to ignore the capital completely and concentrate on other areas of the state. Ironically though, the regional outfit run by the father-son duo, much like personal fiefdom is fast losing most of its political appeal amongst the masses. Reduced to 2 seats in the parliamentary polls in 2014 and having lost much of its Vokkaliga vote bank to its rivals, it is but eminent that the Gowdas need to introspect and see why they are not able to win the trust of the voters. However, there is still a ray of hope for them. The BJP's victory is in no way decisive and the JD-S could hold the key to the formation of the next council in the city.

As I end this post, let us see what the results of the BBMP polls are telling us especially in the context of the Karnataka state polls 2018. Firstly, the BJP is on the rise. Two back to back victories, first in the Lok Sabha polls and the superb tally in Bengaluru has shown that its prospects are on the rise. The coming home of former CM Yeddyurappa and Bellary strongman Sriramalu have further strengthened the saffron camp in the southern state where it already has a broad cadre base comprising mainly of RSS members. R Ashoka is the leader to look out for and you may hear his name often in state politics. For the Congress, its task is cut out. It needs to put its house in order at the earliest and Siddu has to lead the way for this. Moreover, the party just cannot afford to take things lightly in the capital, which was once its stronghold. For the JD-S which is on the verge of merging into the Janata Parivaar in the coming months, its leadership has to retrospect on its ideology, if anything is left of it and work towards strengthening its support base, failing which it could sink into the oblivion.

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A MUCH NEEDED RESPITE!

Shivraj Singh Chouhan - Facebook

Move over the Opposition disrupting the entire monsoon session of the Parliament over the Vyapam Scam or the non-NDA political parties calling for the resignation of Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan for his alleged role, rather, his inability to prevent the scam and later protect the accused and the witnesses in the case. If the results of the ten municipal corporations that went to the polls this month are to go by, the Chief Minister who has won two straight terms in the state assembly continues to 'rule' the hearts of the people and the BJP remains to be the party of their choice. Of course, the municipal polls are in no way, a referendum on Chouhan and the victory in few cities and towns scattered across MP cannot be extrapolated to the entire state. As the saffron outfit's detractors will tell you, the BJP has traditionally done well in urban centers, the 2009 General Elections being a rare exception. However, the extent of BJP's win and the decimation of the Congress in the thick of media's relentless coverage of the Recruitment Scam has punctured the Opposition's stand. This coming at a time when the Congress wanted to use the episode as a tool to 'gherao' the Modi regime.

For a leader who was fighting fire on all fronts, the emphatic victory would have come as a much needed relief for Chouhan, especially after there were murmurs within the state unit of the party of a possible rift. The results have pretty much laid to rest all the clamor, at least from within the saffron ranks, for his ouster. The CM is an astute politician; aware that the results of the polls could to a large extent decide his political future, he actively took part in the campaigning, attending several road shows. There is no surprise then that he was quick to leverage political mileage once the news of BJP's impressive win were declared. On his twitter handle, Singh played the 'victim' card, accusing his detractors of trying to maligning his image and that of the Madhya Pradesh while promising to fight to uphold the prestige of the state.

Besides the CM, the victory is also a big shot in the arm for Narendra Modi. If you notice, the Congress' strategy primarily focused on puncturing Modi's poll promise of wiping out corruption from the country. By sweeping the civic polls, Chouhan has to some extent reposed the PM's faith in him. There is little doubt that the Congress now will have to re-think its move of blocking key reforms thereby allowing the NDA to table some of its pet Bills. Ditto for the BJP. The saffron outfit is likely to use the results of the local body elections to counter any further efforts by the Opposition to corner it.

On the opposite end of the political spectrum, the Congress camp is in a mess, a state that it has been in for long. In spite of all the hue and cry about the Vyapam Scam, it has failed miserably, managing to win just a single municipality while losing two to the BJP. Having been out of power for 12 years, the INC lacks any sort of organizational structure in the central state. This is perhaps the reason that it could just not capitalize on this golden opportunity. The party on its part, needs to retrospect as to why it has not been able to win the trust of the electorate here for so long. Another point to ponder about for the INC is that whenever it is pitted against the Modi-led BJP, its performance has been dismal. In fact, the party seems to have completely botched up the campaign. The protests against Vyapam were centered in Delhi and ironically, not in MP, where it is alleged to have taken place, a classic case of barking up the wrong tree. Surprisingly, none of its top leadership was seen at party rallies held in the state before the polls.

It is now for the Congress to decide whether it wants to continue holding the nation and the Parliament hostage over the issue or abandon it and move on. Frankly speaking, there is nothing wrong in fighting the saffron camp over the Recruitment Scam; I mean, the number of deaths and the money involved is too high for the Congress to let this 'opportunity' to pass by. But then, there are other, more mature ways of fighting the government. Hope, Rahul Gandhi is listening.

Speaking of the junior Gandhi, since he was the one leading the Congress protests in the Parliament, he has a lot to answer. Though he is trying to break the mould and meet more people, he was missing from action in Madhya Pradesh. Think about it, for a cadre which has been demoralized and directionless after a spate of losses, the very presence of the Vice President could have fused in a lot of confidence. And then, how can one absolve leaders like Jyotiraditya Scindia and Digvijay Singh of the blame? Though he has been at the helm of party affairs for sometime now, the junior Scindia has just not produced any results. Certainly, the party high commands needs to rethink its decision of placing such an important state unit in the hands of such a young and politically immature leader.

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GET... SET... GO!

Source: News 18

"Why just 143 seats? The RJD should contest from all 243 assembly seats". This was Bihar CM Nitish Kumar's reaction in May to a question posed by a journalist after RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh's comment that his party should contest 143 seats as part of the 'Secular' Front since it had got more votes compared to the JD-U in the 2014 General Elections. With the top leadership of both parties taking pot shots at each other in the last three months, many in the media as well as the BJP were expecting the candidature of the Chief Minister as well as the seat sharing arrangement between the partners to be major road blocks in the future of this mega coalition. Considering the bitter rivalry that existed between the JD-U and the RJD in the past, they were definitely not off the mark; although going alone was out of question, speculations were rife that these two issues could potentially damage the camaraderie that exists between the former Socialist leaders for now, re-igniting past differences and sowing the seeds of 'disharmony' within the grand alliance.

The first of these two contentious issue - the choice of the Chief Ministerial candidate was sorted in June earlier this year as the incumbent CM Nitish Kumar was given the charge of leading the Janata Parivaar and its allies for the Bihar polls. His former rival - Lalu Prasad who is not eligible to contest any elections after his conviction in the Fodder Scam did try his best to play 'spoil sport'. However, the backing of the Congress and JP's supremo-in-waiting Mulayum Singh Yadav, the lack of any other credible face within the RJD to lead the Front and the image of Nitish as a pro-development leader meant that he was the numero uno choice for the post. In the media conference where the incumbent CM was declared as the leader of the non-NDA coalition, Lalu did make a 'veiled' attack at Kumar when he said that he was even ready to drink 'poison' just to keep the 'communal' forces at bay. In spite of all the drama, the bottom line was clear; the question of leadership of the new Front was a settled one and after throwing some tantrums, the RJD supremo did fall in line in the end, much to the relief of the coalition and its supporters. But then, the other concern was still there: Would the non-NDA parties be able to reach at a consensus on the number of seats to contest and put up a strong defence against the BJP led Front or would the alliance splinter owing to the 'bruised' egos of their leaders?

Many political analysts believed that the seat sharing arrangement could be the mega alliance's 'Achilles Heel'. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) were at loggerheads for long as to what would be the basis for reaching at the final figures; while the former wanted it to be based on the 2010 state polls, the latter was pressing for the General Polls 2014. Moreover, history too was not on their side. One would remember that in 2009, the Congress had walked out of the alliance with Lalu Yadav and LJP's Ramvilas Paswan after it was given just two seats to contest in the then General Elections. There were speculations that the Yadav strongman would demand more seats for his party as 'compensation' for supporting the candidature of Nitish Kumar. The JD-U, on the other hand, having contested as many as 140 odd seats in alliance with the BJP in 2010, was not very keen to accommodate his new found allies.

No wonder then, the news of the coalition partners reaching consensus last Wednesday came in as a surprise to most. As per the pact, the two main regional outfits are set to contest 100 seats each while leaving 40 seats for the Congress which seems to have benefited the most out of the rivalry between the regional parties. Meanwhile, in the conference that was attended by the top leaders of the coalition namely, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav and INC's C P Joshi, the mega coalition blew the electoral bugle. Of course, it was not a smooth sailing all throughout. NCP leader and Katihar MP Tarique Anwar was left fuming after his outfit was allocated just three seats, questioning the very 'secular' ideals that the coalition claims to uphold while accusing them of marginalizing the Muslims over the years for electoral gains. The Samajwadi Party (SP) whose supremo Mulayum Singh played a key role in bringing the coalition together is also said to be disappointed after it was left out of the talks. In fact, even RJD leader Raghuvansh Prasad Singh while speaking to the media expressed his disappointment over the formula and further went on to say that entire exercise was conducted in a 'hurry'.

All the infighting apart, the leaders of the 'Secular' Front must be congratulated for sorting out the two major issues facing its very existence. The pressure is now on the NDA in general and the BJP in particular. With the polls about three months away, the saffron party and its allies are yet to finalize the seat sharing formula. With Paswan, Manjhi and Kushwaha demanding over 60 seats each, it remains to be seen how Amit Shah manages to use his political acumen in reaching a compromise. Forget seat sharing, the BJP has not yet managed to project its CM candidate for the Bihar polls. With the 'Secular' alliance now getting ready for the battle, it is high time that the NDA puts its house in order if it wants to win the prestigious state of Bihar.

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