THE SHAH OF POLLS

Amit Shah - Courtesy: India Today

The dust on the electoral battle field has settled and the incumbent PM Narendra Modi and his BJP has stormed to another term in power, this time with a much stronger mandate. The saffron party on its own won 303 seats while the NDA finished with a spectacular tally of 353 inching very close to a two-thirds majority in the Lower House of the Parliament. Though PM's popularity with the masses and the lack of a strong Opposition are cited as primary reasons for the BJP's solid showing at the hustings, it is easy to over look the role of the party President - Amit Shah under whose leadership, the saffron outfit has been transformed into a well oiled election machine that barring a few setbacks, has won most state polls in India over the last five years.

Considering that PM Modi has not been able to deliver on many of the promises he made during the run up to the 2014 polls, BJP was expected to drop seats, especially in the Hindi heartland where it had lost three crucial states in November last year. Agrarian distress and unemployment were believed to only make the matter worse for the ruling dispensation. Though the Balakot air strikes managed to turn the tide significantly in favor of the BJP, Shah's deft handling of alliances in crucial states, his efforts in strengthening the party organization apart from the his conscious efforts to expand the BJP's footprints in the East and North-East seem to have paid handsome dividends in form of massive gains throughout the country, barring deep South.

Strengthening the Party: Early in his tenure as the national president, buoyed by Modi's soaring popularity, Shah began a membership drive where people could join the saffron ranks by simply giving a missed call. Leaders right from the Panchayat to the national level were given targets and their performance was monitored. Within months, the BJP with a membership of over 10 crores became the largest political party in the world. Next, as four states went to polls, in the later half of 2014, the former Gujarat Home Minister began replicating his 2014 UP success story across the nation. Panna Pramukhs, responsible for about 8-10 families that figured on a single page of electoral rolls in a constituency, were appointed throughout the country. Key strategists from the RSS like Ram Madhav were roped into the party. In the run up to the national elections, programs like 'Mera Booth, Sabse Majbhoot' were launched to boost morale of party workers. Over the span of five years, Shah's many moves at strengthening the party, like those mentioned above, paid rich dividends as the enthused party cadre tapped in Modi's popularity to win a landslide victory.

Stitching Key Alliances: Once the pioneer of coalition politics in India, it was said that Modi's autocratic way of functioning was pushing key allies away from the BJP. Months before the polls, Shah began getting disgruntled NDA partners on board. Shiv Sena which had been the most trenchant opponent of the BJP and the PM in the last term was convinced to remain within the NDA in spite of the party supremo Uddhav Thackeray's earlier announcement of going to the hustings all alone. Nitish Kumar led JD-U was allocated 17 seats with the BJP even giving away seats that they had won in 2014 as a part of the seat sharing arrangement in Bihar. In Assam, the AGP which had left the NDA protesting over the Citizenship Bill too was convinced to back the saffron outfit for the national polls. In the south, the BJP put up an impressive front including the ruling AIADMK, Ramdos led PMK, actor turned politician Vijaykant led DMDK and so on.

As the results started trickling in on 23rd May, Shah's effort seem to have bore fruits. Though the DMK led front swept Tamil Nadu, in other places it was the NDA that trounced the UPA. JD-U won all but one of the 17 seats it contested as the NDA won 39 of the 40 seats in Bihar. Shiv Sena won 18 of the 23 seats it contested in Maharashtra with the NDA ending with a solid tally of 41 in Maharashtra. In Assam, the NDA once again proved its might bagging 9 of the 14 seats in the state.

Expanding party's footprints: Perhaps, Amit Shah's biggest achievement as the BJP national president has been his ability to expand the party's foot prints in hitherto unknown lands. Till 2014, the saffron outfit was considered as party with its base in the Hindi heartland and western India. Under Shah though, the party has made significant in roads into states like Odisha, Bengal and the North-East.

The BJP first emerged as the real challenger to Naveen Patnaik in the 2017 Panchayat polls when it stood second to the BJD. In the national polls, the party won 8 seats, an improvement of 7 over its performance in the last Lok Sabha elections. In Telangana, the saffron outfit shocked CM KCR and his TRS by winning 4 seats. This is an accomplishment considering that the pink party had swept the state polls held earlier this year. In the North East, the BJP and its partners in the NEDA won 18 of the 25 parliamentary seats. This region, till sometime back had minimal BJP presence and was see as a Congress bastion. But the story of 2019 polls was Bengal where the saffron outfit did the unthinkable, winning 18 seats and emerging as the biggest threat to CM Mamta Bannerjee's TMC.

Shah's hard work and perseverance seem to have caught the eye of the PM too. Shah has been inducted in the cabinet and is now seen as the new No 2 in the pecking order. The Chanakya who is credited for transforming the fortunes of the party is now the country's Home Minister. Can he now transform the fortunes of the country. Only time will tell.

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WILL THE LOTUS BLOOM IN ASSAM

After the rout in Delhi followed by the ignominious defeat at the hands of the Grand Alliance in Bihar, the Modi bandwagon has all but lost its steam; in fact, after a brilliant 2014, the best in the history of the saffron outfit so far, the year 2015 has been one that the BJP would like to put behind, quite literally. The political setbacks apart, the intolerance debate, the Parliamentary logjam and the inability of the Modi regime to bring in the much hyped 'Acche Din', has to a substantial extent, hit the ratings of the Prime Minister and his party. To be frank, in 2016 too, things do not seem to be particularly good for the saffronists; of the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls, the party has meagre presence in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Bengal and Pondicherry which is unlikely to yield any significant political gains. The BJP is looking for one electoral victory to break the jinx and perhaps the state that could offer them an opportunity to do so is Assam.

Can the BJP storm the Congress bastion: In the last Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won half of the 14 parliamentary seats from the state thanks to the Modi magic, its best performance in Assam so far. In February, the following year, the saffron outfit made further gains in the north eastern state as it won 38 of the 74 municipal boards and town committees, leaving the Congress with just 17. The writing on the wall is pretty clear. The saffron outfit is now, for the first time in its history, the most popular party in Assam. It is all set to win a simple majority or at least finish as the single largest party in the state albeit it shoots itself in the foot, something that the BJP is quite capable of, as seen earlier.

PM Modi at a rally in Assam in 2014

Unlike the Delhi and Bihar elections wherein the saffron outfit was challenging strong regional players, here in Assam, the odds are stacked in its favor. It is a known fact that the BJP does well whenever it is pitted against the Congress. And to make matters worse for the grand old party, it is facing a strong anti-incumbency wave having been in power for three straight terms.

However, the BJP is not taking any chances. In a bid to further boost its chances, it has roped in the BPF (Bodoland People's Front) into a pre poll alliance which has a significant vote base in 16 assembly segments that form a part of the Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD), apart from having some influence with sections of voters in another 14 seats. Talks are set to be in process even with former ally - the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP).

Most importantly, in a move that is different from the general norm in the Modi Era, the party has anointed Union Minister and MP Sarbanada Sonorwal as its Chief ministerial candidate for the Assam polls. Belonging to the electorally influential Scheduled Tribe (ST) community, he is known for his clean image. Moreover, a host of leaders, primarily from the Congress and the AGP have joined the BJP in the last few months. Amongst them is Himanta Biswa Sarma, once believed to be incumbent CM Tarun Gogoi's right hand man who has shifted base to the saffron camp after his CM ambitions were not fulfilled in the INC in spite of a long drawn revolt.

The Challenges in Store: For all those who thought that Assam would be a cake walk for the BJP, painting the north eastern state in saffron is not going to be an easy task. For once, the party is fighting history; it has never been able to form a government in Dispur in the past. Even in the last state assembly polls, it could get just five seats. With the Modi wave all but gone, it remains to be seen if the people of Assam will repose their faith in the state BJP leadership.

BJP's CM candidate Sarbanada Sonorwal

Perhaps, the biggest head ache for the party ahead of the polls is the fact that many of the promises it made during its parliamentary campaign in 2014 have remain unfulfilled. The Land Accord with Bangladesh continues to be an emotive issue and has not gone on well with some people whereas no concrete steps have been taken to deport illegal immigrants from the state. The promise of including several communities in the Scheduled Tribes category too has not yet fructified. Besides, the Congress is aggressively wooing the tea workers who are electorally influential in many areas of the state. And then, there is the fear of an alliance between the Congress and the AIUDF which could help consolidate the minority votes against the BJP. Lastly, the saffronists have to consider the aspirations of many leaders who have joined them lately while making sure that those of old timers and loyalists are not compromised; striking such a balance could be the key in wining a majority in the state and forming a stable government for a full term.

The importance of Assam for the BJP: The PM and more so, BJP President Amit Shah desperately need a political victory to break the spate of reverses in the recent past. Assam is all the more important since the party is in no position to win any of the other four states that go to the polls this year. A win here would nonetheless infuse some enthusiasm amongst the cadres, especially ahead of 2017 when the party will be battling for the all important state of Uttar Pradesh.

Himanta Biswa Sarma

Secondly, an important aspect of Modi government's foreign affairs is the 'Look East' policy. With Assam being one of the largest states in the eastern part of the country, it is essential for the BJP to be in power here to fulfill the PM's agenda. Over the last two years, ever since the BJP came to power at the Centre, the relations between Delhi and Dispur have never been cordial, with Modi and Gogoi taking regular pot shots at each other. A saffron regime in Assam will ease this and help BJP implement its 'vision' for the welfare of the state; if party sources are to be believed, this, apparently is not possible till the Congress remains in power in Dispur.

Last but not the least, for BJP President Amit Shah's dream of a 'Congress mukht' Bharat to come true, it is essential for the saffronists to make in roads into north eastern India, where it traditional has been a fringe player. For this dream to be realized, Assam holds the key considering that it borders six other states in the region. A BJP government here will help it expand across borders into Arunachal, Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. No wonder then, the BJP will come out all guns blazing in the fight for Assam.

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ASSAM POLLS: LET THE BATTLE BEGIN

Sonowal with PM Modi and Biswa

After an incredible 2014, the once 'unstoppable' Modi bandwagon was completely halted after back to back electoral defeats, first in Delhi and then in Bihar. The 'intolerance' debate, rising food prices, the logjam in the Parliament and the subsequent inability of the NDA government to initiate much awaited reforms have certainly hit the popularity of the PM and his party. Modi for sure knows that perhaps the only way to regain some of the lost pride is by registering a major political victory; out of the five states that are schedule to go for polls in 2016, the one where the saffron camp is fancying its chances is the north-eastern state of Assam, wherein the BJP won half of the fourteen parliamentary seats in the last General Polls held in 2014.

In what has become a norm within the BJP in the NaMo era, the party's campaign was kick started by the PM when he addressed a rally in Kokrajhar in western Assam in January where he urged the people to give his party a chance to form a government at Dispur. Earlier this week, he also attended a meeting of tea workers who form a substantial chunk of voters where he famously blamed the Gandhis for holding up key legislation that he claimed would help the people of the state.

Meanwhile, the BJP seems to have learnt its lessons from the debacle in Bihar and Delhi. Sarbananda Sonowal, the Union Minister for Sports and Youth Affairs representing Lakhimpur in the Lok Sabha has been anointed to lead the saffron camp for the upcoming polls. The entry of Himanta Biswa Sarma who was once considered to be close to incumbent CM Tarun Gogoi into the party fold has added to its chances of winning. With the elections expected to be a close contest, the tie up with the BPF (Bodoland People's Front) which has considerable clout in the autonomous councils in the north-eastern state is expected to bring in more acceptance to the BJP which has never ruled Assam. On top of these positives is of course the massive anti-incumbency against the ruling Congress which the BJP could easily leverage to its advantage. Unless it does something really 'stupid', the saffron camp is all set to create history by forming its first government in Dispur or at least emerge as the single largest party in the legislative assembly in case of a fractured mandate.

CM Tarun Gogoi at an election rally

On the other hand, the Congress camp is feeling 'jittery' ahead of the elections. Having been in power in the state for three consecutive terms, CM Tarun Gogoi is facing the heat even as he tries to set the stage for his son Gaurav to succeed him, upholding a long time Congress tradition. The rout in the General Elections followed by a dismal performance in the municipal polls has adversely affected cadre morale; the departure of Biswa, once considered the blue-eyed boy of Gogoi has further dented their chances. However, some believe that this could well be a blessing in disguise since it could rid the party of factionalism, credited by many to be the real reason for the mess that the grand old party finds itself in its stronghold.

However, speaking at a press conference after PM Modi's January rally, Gogoi seemed to be confident of his party winning a straight fourth term in the state. In fact, what he was suggesting is perhaps the only way for the Congress to somehow hang on to power in Assam; if the INC can manage to build a grand alliance, the way Nitish and Lalu did in Bihar, then it has a very good chance of at least keeping the BJP at bay. Even if a formal pre-poll tie up with 'like-minded' parties is not possible, a well thought out strategy to defeat the BJP could also do the trick. But then, are the AGP and the AIUDF ready to be a part of such a formation, either formally or informally is something that will be clear in the next few weeks.

Badruddin Ajmal 

The joker in the pack is the AIUDF (All India United Democratic Front) which has been constantly improving its performance in the state over the last decade. Floated by perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal, the regional outfit which has a substantial voter base in the southern parts of Assam finished as the second largest party in the last state polls with 18 seats and then ended up with a tally of three in the parliamentary elections. As of now, the party has not responded to calls to form an anti-BJP front in Assam ahead of the polls. Most observers believe that the party is keeping its options open. In case of a hung assembly, it could end up becoming the 'king maker'. With this in mind, the AIUDF is concentrating on reaching out beyond its traditional vote base comprising of minority votes so that it can maximize its results.

Once a major political player in the state, the AGP (Asom Gana Parishad) is being wooed aggressively, both by the BJP and the Congress for a pre-poll tie up. However, as of now, the party has managed to stay away from both the national parties. The upcoming elections though are a litmus test for the AGP. Though it was in power for two terms in the state in the past, its popularity continues to be at an all time low and most of its leaders and cadre have shifted base to other outfits. No wonder, the party is trying to use the polls as an opportunity to stage a major comeback and regain some of its lost glory. Will the AGP succeed in its endeavor or will it sink further into political oblivion is something that remains to be seen.

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2016: THE STAKES ARE HIGH

The year 2015 has been one to forget for the saffron outfit; after being routed in the Delhi state polls, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was further embarrassed in Bihar later in the year when the NDA was convincing beaten by the grand opposition led by bitter rival Nitish Kumar. Rising prices, the 'intolerance' debate and failure of the government to bring in the much anticipated reforms has meant that the aura of invincibility surrounding the BJP and the Prime Minister has been busted; the much hyped Modi wave seems to have vanished and Amit Shah's political acumen seems to have deserted him completely.

Probably, the only saving grace for the party is that the popularity of the Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to remain high. However, as the Delhi and Bihar polls have shown, it cannot solely depend on the PM to win them the elections in the states. Amongst the five states that are scheduled to go to the polls in 2016, Assam is one where the BJP will fancy its chances in the wake of rising anti-incumbency against the Tarun Gogoi government. It remains to be seen what strategy the party applies in Tamil Nadu and neighboring Pondicherry. Will it revive the NDA in Tamil region and fight the polls with Vijaykant's MDMK or abandon its front and ally with the Jayalalithaa? Moreover, it remains to be seen if the BJP can finally break its jinx and make its debut in Kerala. Also, the party will hope to improve its share in Bengal.

For the Congress, this year has been a mixed bag. The year started on a bad note with the grand old party being wiped out from the capital. However, the victory of the grand alliance of which the INC was a part of in Bihar did bring in a lot of cheers. More importantly, a big hurray for the party is that its Vice President Rahul Gandhi seems to be taking charge of the affairs of late. The party's strategy to stall Parliament has worked till now but then it must make sure that it does not over do it.

Looking forward to 2016, the Congress is still to regain its lost political pride which can only be restored by a famous win in the electoral arena. Probably, from the INC's perspective, the only state where it has a chance to register a big electoral win is Kerala where it is in power. Considering the present political conditions, it is unlikely that the party can win a fourth straight win in Assam in the wake of rebellion within its ranks. Allying with the DMK is the only option to do well in Tamil Nadu whereas Bengal will be a lost cause, unless the INC makes up with the TMC.

Compared to the two national parties, perhaps the upcoming year is the most important for the Left Front as two of the three states where it has a significant presence go to the polls. And to be frank, the situation does not seem to be particularly good. In its former bastion of Bengal, the TMC is all set to retain its hold in Kolkata thanks to the inability of the Communists to put up a spirited fight. The fight in Kerala seems to be a really tight one with the Congress going all out to keep the Left Front at bay.

Finally, the stakes are high for the regional players too. Jayalalithaa who was believed to be comfortably placed to win a consecutive term is now facing the heat, especially after the deluge in Chennai and Cuddalore. The only saving grace for her is that the DMK is ridden with internal strife and the taint surrounding the alleged involvement of some of its top leaders in the 2G scam is yet to go. In the east, Mamta Bannerjee though is in a much better position, thanks to an inefficient opposition and her goons.

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BIHAR: THE VERDICT

Though many were expecting Bihar to be a close contest after a bitterly fought campaign, with leader from both camps often indulging in 'inappropriate' language and even going below the belt on some occasions, the people of India's third most populous state have delivered a resounding verdict, choosing the 'Mahaghatbandhan' led by by their incumbent CM Nitish Kumar over PM Narendra Modi's NDA. In many ways, it was a fairy tale come back for the JD-U chief; after a series of blunders that threatened to jeopardize his political career altogether, he has 'risen' from the ashes, beating the PM with whom, he has had some scores to settle with. While Kumar is all set to retain the chair of the CM, the 'Man of the Series' is certainly Lalu Prasad Yadav. The former Bihar CM who was once Nitish's staunchest rival is in my opinion, one of the biggest factors responsible for the 'grand' victory of the mega alliance. For the BJP and its allies though, the results have been crushing; saying that the NDA 'lost' the polls would be a massive under statement since they have been 'routed' with the regional front winning thrice as many seats as the BJP led coalition.

The highlight of the Bihar state polls 2015 for me has been the manner in which Nitish, Lalu and most importantly, the cadre of the two parties have resolved the bitter differences that existed amongst them in the past and literally blown away the BJP and its allies. While there is no doubt that this was an alliance to retain their political significance, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo must be credited for sticking together in spite of varying styles of functioning and reaching consensus on all important issues including the post of CM, seat sharing arrangement, campaign strategy et all. Though there were some murmurs of dissent within their ranks initially, the cadre too seem to have worked. Remarkably, the regional front even managed to transfer their respective vote banks to candidates of the alliance across the state. The electoral campaign of the grand alliance was pretty simple. While the soft-spoken Nitish Kumar harped on the development bandwagon, the more 'brash' Lalu took on the hard line, hitting out at the PM and his aide Amit Shah at regular intervals. Of course, the many blunders from the saffron camp including the failure to project a local leader, the beef controversy and the 'unwarranted' statements regarding reservations made by the RSS chief only gave more ammunition to the regional players.

The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) finished as the single largest party in the state assembly, winning 80 of the 101 seats it contested, its best tally in over a decade. The Janata Dal - United (JD-U) finished with a tally of 71 whereas the Congress seems to have been a big beneficiary of the verdict. The INC won nearly 70% of the total seats it contested.

For the BJP, its dream of a saffron government in Patna was crashed after its alliance finished with a paltry tally of 58 seats. The fact remains that in spite of the NDA's superlative performance in the 2014 General Elections, the saffron outfit was always the 'underdog' considering that the two regional parties had joined hands to counter it. The BJP tried to counter this by roping in the PM to address over 30 rallies in the state and roping in JD-U rebel and former CM Manjhi with an eye on the Extremely Backward Class votes. However, a spate of errors on its part, some of which I have already recounted above cost it dearly. Some of the leaders of the party or belonging to its affiliates only made the matters worse by raking up communal and casteist sentiments further strengthening the anti-NDA votes. Spoilers like the AIMIM, the SP and the NCP failed to make any considerable dent in the Opposition's tally. Moreover, Nitish's record as a 'capable' CM and the lack of any substantial anti-incumbency on the ground meant that the BJP was wiped off Bihar.

The charts displayed here are created using the free online tool - ChartGo (Link).

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DO OR DIE...

Lalu Yadav - Facebook

While most political commentators dipped their pens in black ink and wrote the political obituary of former CM Lalu Prasad Yadav after his party was reduced to mere four parliamentary seats in the 2014 Union Polls, the 'unholy and unexpected' alliance between him and his bête noire - Nitish Kumar seems to have given the RJD supremo one more chance to remain relevant in a state which he dominated for nearly two decades. In the run up to the big polls, the split in the NDA was seen by many as the 'opening' that Lalu needed to stage a political comeback after being on the fringes for nearly five years and his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam; unfortunately, the Modi wave was just too strong for him to regain his lost glory. However, the realignment of political forces in the state with the coming together of the former Janata Dal constituents to take on a resurgent BJP could well be the opportunity that has been eluding the Yadav leader for long. With the sword of Damocles hanging over his head, Bihar 2015 has become a 'Do or Die' scenario for one of India's most colorful yet controversial politician.

Nobody understands the gravity of the situation more than Lalu himself. The astute politician that he is, the sheer number of 'sacrifices' that he has made in the last few months should make it clear how much importance the former Rail Minister attaches to the poll verdict. Firstly, in spite of his bitter rivalry with his one time comrade turned foe Nitish Kumar, the Yadav strongman agreed to a coalition with the latter's JD-U, the same party that has eroded Lalu's Muslim and lower caste vote base. Many were skeptical of such an alliance considering the bad blood between the two regional leaders and their ideological differences. However, Lalu on his part should be appreciated for holding on to 'Maha Ghatbandhan' in the wake of many differences. Secondly, aware of the popularity of the incumbent CM amongst the masses, the RJD supremo buckled under pressure, allowing the mega coalition to project Nitish as its CM nominee. This is so much different than the Lalu Prasad we have known over the years; remember, it was he who famously stalled Mulayum Singh Yadav's bid to become the PM back in the nineties. Not only this, he also agreed to fight the same number of seats as the JD-U, something that many believed was just not possible, more so after the RJD conceded the CM's chair to Nitish. Surely, the former CM has gone out of the way to ensure that his alliance remains strong in its battle against the NDA.

Lalu clearly understands his role in the campaign for grand alliance; his conviction in the Fodder Scam and the pathetic state of law and order in the state during his tenure as the CM make him the prime target of the BJP which has termed his days at the helm of affairs in Patna as 'Jungle Raj'. However, the RJD chief is the master in caste based politics, a factor that continues to resonate with the electorate here even today. No wonder than that he is playing the caste card to win over the voters. The recent comments by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat calling for the retrospection of reservation policy in the country and the spate in the killings of Dalits in the BJP ruled Haryana has given more ammunition for the Yadav strongman to train his gun at the saffron camp. Lalu has been the darling of the Muslims ever since he stopped Advani's Rath Yatra back in 1990 and he continues to flaunt his 'secular' credentials particularly in the wake of the Dadri lynching, hoping to stitch back his fabled Muslim - Yadav combination that was the base which catapulted him to three straight wins in the state. And in his vintage style, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss has not shied away from attacking PM Modi even calling him a 'Brahm Pishchak' on one occassion.

Meanwhile, an indication of his declining clout in Bihar was evident from the defeat of his eldest daughter Misa Bharati from the Paliputra parliamentary seat in May last year. With his sons - Tej Pratap and Tejaswi in the fray for the state polls this time around, the stakes for Lalu Yadav are much higher. In case, the saffron alliance manages to sweep the state and the RJD fails to put up a good show, serious questions will be raised over the future of his party. In the past two years, several of the RJD's leaders including Ramkripal Yadav and Pappu Yadav have either deserted the outfit or have been shown the door. In case, the party fails to perform well in the scheduled polls, one can expect another exodus of the few remaining leaders from the party outside its first family. Not only will it relegate Lalu to the fringes, but will also take the gas out of the RJD's lantern. The Yadav strongman will certainly want his sons to have a good start in their political careers and for this to happen, a victory for the mega coalition in Bihar is essential.

Speaking to the media, Lalu had once remarked 'Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, tab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu'. While the starchy vegetable will continue to be a part of one of India's most famous snack for a long time, the November 12 verdict will decide the fate of the RJD chief and his party. Till then, we need to keep our fingers crossed.

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IT'S A DEAL!!!

The NDA in Bihar

All the ego clashes and political arm twisting apart, the four parties that constitute the NDA in Bihar reached a consensus on the seat sharing arrangement in mid September, a couple of weeks after its bête noire - the Mahaghatbandhan made a similar announcement. Speaking to the media, BJP president and the man behind the accord Amit Shah put up a brave face, squashing all rumors of rift between the partners, primarily LJP's Paswan and HAM's Manjhi who seemed to be at loggerheads to prove who amongst the two is the real leader of the lower castes within the NDA ranks. As per the arrangement, the saffron outfit which is heading the front took away the lion's share and will be fielding candidates from 160 assembly segments. The pecking order within the alliance was clearly demarcated with the LJP getting 40 seats followed by Kushwaha's RLSP getting 23 and Manjhi's newly launched HAM bagging 20. Here are the key takeaways from the entire exercise in my opinion.

The seat sharing arrangement between the four players has clearly shown who is the boss. With the BJP contesting nearly two thirds of the total seats, almost 60 seats more than what it had contested in alliance with the JD-U in last state polls, the party has given itself an opportunity to form a simple majority on its own. Of course, at present indications are that the contest is going to be keenly fought affair and it is highly unlikely that the party can go past the half way mark on its own. However, it has at least given itself a chance. Moreover, it is now but sure that in case the NDA forms the next government in Patna, the CM will for sure be from the saffron outfit. If you remember, allies like the RLSP and the HAM were pitching for their supremos to be anointed as the alliance's choice for the top job. With the hierarchy firmly established, all these murmurs have been laid to rest. Also from the BJP's perspective, with the deal being hammered out, it can no go on the offensive in its bid to form its maiden regime in Bihar.

So have the allies got a 'raw' deal? To answer this question, we need to answer a different question: Does the BJP need the allies or do the allies need BJP? With the entire opposition ganging up against you, having a few friends on your side does help; hopefully the saffron camp realizes this. Moreover, in a state where caste can be a dominant factor in determining the outcome, these outfits who have backing of certain sections of the society can help tilting the balance on one side in a closely fought contest like this one. In spite of this, I think it is the allies who benefit more from the arrangement.

Imagine the scenario wherein the LJP, the RLSP and the HAM had not aligned with the BJP. Firstly, two of the three parties would not have had any MPs in the Parliament today; the only reason that six LJP members and three RLSP nominees made the cut was that the belonged to parties backing Narendra Modi.

For outfits like the Hindustan Awam Manch (HAM) or the Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP) whose chiefs had left the JD-U to float their own parties after differences with incumbent CM Nitish Kumar, there was no way they could have joined the Grand Alliance. Going back to Kumar would mean compromising on their self respect and enduring political humiliation from all quarters. On the other hand, their association with the BJP gives them a chance in a fight in which they otherwise would have been destined to lose had they gone solo; without the support of the NDA, even opening their account would have been nothing short of a miracle considering the lack of organization structure within these outfits and their inability to arrange the resources needed to fight such a high stakes election for the time being.

While one may understand why the likes of Kushwaha and Manjhi had to go with the NDA, the case of Bihar's political joker - Ramvilas Paswan is, as usual 'curious', to say the least. In the last three decades, he has tried all permutations and combinations; no wonder, allying with the grand alliance was also an alternative which the Dalit leader would have contemplated, even post the May 2014 General Elections. However, one needs to realize that the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) has been in a moribund state ever since 2004 with its support base dwindling with every passing day; in the last state polls, the party in alliance with the RJD could win just 3 seats. At this juncture, if the Hajipur strongman had gone with the Nitish led coalition, he would have been fourth in the hierarchy, even behind the Congess and thus would have at max, got 20 to 25 seats to contest. On the other hand, the LJP is the second largest partner in the NDA now and will nominate candidates for 40 assembly constituencies. Though a NDA victory in Bihar will be the ideal scenario for LJP chief, his main aim will be to leverage whatever is left of the Modi wave to regain lost political ground by maximizing his final tally; moreover, knowing the wily fox that he is, Paswan should have no problems dumping the NDA and walking over to the Nitish camp in case of a hung assembly in case of a hung verdict if he is offered a 'good' deal.

Perhaps, one factor that most of us have missed is the political mastery of BJP president Amit Shah. A brilliant strategist who was elevated to the top post in the party ranks after scripting a memorable win for his boss in the big polls, he showed us again why he is amongst the most astute politicians in the country today. Bihar is an important state for the BJP and failing to cross the mark here will be a major embarrassment for the PM himself. No wonder, with unrest brewing within the constituents of the NDA and the allies getting more assertive, Modi had to depute his trusted aide to sort out the matter at the earliest. Having completed his task with distinction and brokered a deal, it remains to to be seen if Shah can paint the big state 'saffron' for Modi.

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THE BATTLE FOR SURVIVAL

In the nineties and the early 2000s, he was the undisputed 'king' of Bihar's political landscape; apart from being the leader of the electorally influential Yadav community in the state, he also won the hearts of the Muslims by halting Lal Krishna Advani's Rath Yatra in Samastipur in 1990. It was precisely due to the backing of this formidable M-Y combination that Lalu Prasad Yadav won an unprecedented three consecutive state elections during that period. In fact, he was also a force to reckon with in national politics too during this time when the Congress hegemony on the post of the Prime Minister of India was being challenged on the one side by the right wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the loose coalition of regional satraps in various avatars on the other. After all, he was the one who blocked the elevation of another strong Yadav leader - Mulayum Singh Yadav from Samajwadi Party (SP) to the post of the PM in 1996. Moreover, when he had to resign following his conviction in the multi-crore Fodder Scam, he 'abdicated the CM's chair' in favor of his wife Rabri Devi and later went on to become the Railway Minister in the first innings of the Congress led UPA in 2004.

Though he was at the height of his political power at around this time, he seemed to have completely miscalculated the mood of the people on the ground. The days of caste ridden and representative politics were numbered and the masses wanted their political leaders to deliver on issues that mattered the most including good roads, water supply, electricity, employment, education, law and order and poverty elevation. And this was certainly not the RJD chief's forte. In what can be described as the biggest political surprise of 2005, the Nitish led NDA comprising of the JD-U and the BJP comfortably beat the Yadav led UPA to finally end the 'Lalu era' or what his detractors refer to as the 'Jungle Raj' in Bihar. Unfortunately for him, this was just the beginning for what would be a decade of electoral losses and political setbacks. As Nitish Kumar ushered in a wave of development in the north state, Lalu's vote base and political fortunes began to decline exponentially. In the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA won 32 parliamentary seats while the RJD-LJP combine could muster just four. In the state polls held in the next year, further humiliation followed; the RJD was reduced to 22 seats and many were left wondering if Lalu would ever emerge from this spate of electoral defeats and resurrect his political career. As if this was not enough, the Supreme Court in 2015 upheld his conviction in the Fodder Scam by a CBI Court, making him ineligible to contest any polls for five years.

Lalu Prasad Yadav - Facebook

When all doors seem to be closing on the former CM, an opportunity came knocking post the split in the NDA after Nitish broke off all ties with the saffron outfit following the elevation of Narendra Modi as the BJP's nominee for the post of PM in 2014 General Election. The RJD chief seemed to be ready to cash in. Apart from 'rectifying' his mistake of having dumped the Congress in 2009, he also flaunted his 'secular' credentials to counter the NaMo mania. In the triangular contest that followed, the NDA painted Bihar in saffron, winning a staggering 31 seats while leaving the warring regional parties - the RJD and the JD-U with four and two seats respectively. In what seemed to be a scene right out of a Bollywood blockbuster, friends turned foes - Lalu Prasad Yadav and Nitish Kumar who had fought each other for nearly two decades 'kissed and made up' in an attempt to remain relevant in the 'Modi Era'. As the various constituents of the erstwhile Janata Parivaar (JP) initiated proceeding to merge into a single entity to counter the rise of the BJP, the new found allies won a sweet victory over the NDA in the August 2014 Bihar by-polls where they were assisted by the Congress and the NCP. Besides, the two parties have managed to put the differences of the past behind them and are gearing up to face the NDA in the high stakes 2015 state polls which in many ways could decide the fate of one of the most popular yet controversial leaders of our times - Lalu Prasad Yadav.

An Uneasy Calm: Though they have put up a united front while addressing rallies or press conferences, it is clear that all is not well between the Lalu and Nitish who were at the opposing end of the political spectrum for over 15 years during which they have fought several bitter battles and accused each other of various wrong-doings. From the perspective of the RJD chief, it was Kumar who broke his iron grip over Bihar in 2005, thereby relegating him to the sidelines both in the state and central politics. Though Lalu may have joined hands with the JD-U for now, there is no doubt that the bitterness from the past is still strong and the deep distrust between the chieftains refuses to die down in spite of the two parties being together for nearly an year now. Perhaps, what hurts the RJD chief all the more is the fact that he plays 'second fiddle' to the incumbent CM in the fight against the BJP. As we know, it is Nitish Kumar who was anointed by the JP to lead the 'Secular' Front in Bihar and the two regional outfits got equal number of seats in spite of the RJD's demands for more considering their relatively better performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. But then, does Yadav have any choice? The answer is a 'No'. At this critical juncture when many are raising doubts over his future, Lalu has no choice but to stick with the mega coalition and focus on beating the NDA. All that the former Railway Minister can do to vent out is frustration is make sarcastic remarks like the one he made when asked about the appointment of Kumar as the alliance's CM candidate, "I am ready to drink all kinds of poison to crush the cobra of communalism".

A much needed victory: The one leader whose fate virtually hangs in the balance in the upcoming Bihar state polls is the RJD chief. At 67 years of age and having undergone a heart operation, he is certainly not getting any younger. As election results in the past nine years have shown, his once formidable M-Y combination seems to be gravitating towards his political rivals. The charges of corruption against him and his family as well as the horrific tales of lawlessness in Bihar under the RJD have completely tarnished his image. The charisma that won him many admirers in the past is vanning away whereas Yadav and the RJD have failed to re-inventing themselves or their ideologies so as to stay relevant in the minds of the state's youth. Moreover, his outfit just does not have any second rung mass leaders who are capable of getting the votes while his own children are yet to make their mark. With so many factors working against him, it is easy to understand why a victory is what Lalu Yadav needs at this juncture. Not only will it help him heal some of the scars of the past but will give him time, influence and power to put his party in order and pass on the baton to his sons and political successors - Tejaswi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav who have taken the lead as far as the campaign is concerned.

While winning the 2015 state polls is Lalu's primary agenda, the ideal scenario for him is if he manages to win more seats than the JD-U. Consider this scenario wherein the JP manages to go past the halfway mark but the RJD gets a higher tally than the JD-U, making it indispensable as far as the formation of a non-NDA government in the state is concerned. In this case, there is no doubt that Lalu will use his numbers to make sure that Nitish does not get the CM's chair. Even if he does allow the JD-U supremo to continue in the post, expect him to keep the Kurmi leader on the tenterhooks all the time.

A defeat = The End: A defeat for the 'Secular' Front will possibly be the final nail in the spectacular political career of Lalu Prasad Yadav. Following that sting of political losses, the conviction in the Fodder Scam and the image of a 'power-drunk and corrupt' politician that seems to have stuck with him for long, it will be pretty much safe to dip our pen in black ink and write Lalu's political obituary. Yadav's outfit - the RJD is in tatters and another defeat may prompt a mass exodus of most of the cadre towards other parties, further destroying whatever little is left of it. Lalu's eldest daughter Misa who was beaten by former aide Rajkripal Yadav from Patliputra parliamentary seat by a margin of 40,000 votes has been maintaining a low profile ever since. Meanwhile, his two sons are too young and politically naive to lead an immediate resurgence. While speaking to some journalist years agao, Lalu had famously remarked "Jab tak rahega samose mein aloo, jab tak rahega Bihar mein Lalu". Unfortunately for him, a flop show in 2015 may mean that the once powerful Bihari satrap is relegated to the fringes in state politics forever even as potatoes continue to embellish one of India's favorite snack.

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WILL CHANAKYA'S 'NEETI' WORK?

The JD-U supremo Nitish Kumar who is dubbed by several political analysts as the modern day 'Chanakya' of the Indian political spectrum, pulled off another major political coup few weeks ago when his name was declared as the official chief ministerial nominee of the newly formed and 'loosely knit' Janata Parivaar (JP) for the upcoming Bihar polls. With the war of words between the leaders of the state's top two regional parties - the JD-U and the RJD escalating over the past two months, the announcement made by the Janata Parivaar's de-facto chief Mulayum Singh Yadav ended weeks of speculations of a possible break down in the anti-BJP plank even before the elections. In what seemed to be a well choreographed affair, the name of Nitish as the face of the alliance was proposed by none other than his friend turned foe turned friend - Lalu Yadav.

Check Mating Lalu: Like Kautaliya who crafted the downfall of the much powerful Nanda Empire by training his protégé Chandragupta Maurya in the fourth century BC, the incumbent CM too played his cards well in the race to be the 'face' of the grand alliance. Having deposed his self-appointed successor Jitam Ram Manjhi from the helm of affairs after the latter refused to be a mere puppet, Nitish knew very well that the move could hurt him electorally with a section of the influential Maha-Dalit community refusing to back him for having mistreated their leader. Moreover, the lessons of the September 2014 by-polls were not lost on him; for halting the Modi juggernaut it was essential to keep the mega coalition together. At the same time though, to salvage lost pride and to maintain political relevance, it was equally important for him to lead it. With Lalu in the equation and the bitter animosity between the two leaders since the mid 90s being a stuff of legends, this was not going to be easy. Though the RJD chief has been barred from contesting elections after being convicted in the Fodder Scam, he was, or rather he still is, not very keen to fight the polls under the leadership of his one time rival. The Yadav strong man is a master in the art of dirty politics and side lining him was going to be a herculean task within itself.

This is exactly where Nitish displayed his political acumen; fully aware that the Congress, in spite of its moribund state of affairs in Bihar would still play a decisive role in deciding the CM candidate of the coalition, the JD-U chief had a special audience with Rahul Gandhi on a visit to Delhi. It is believed that the Congress Vice President, unlike his mother does not have a good opinion of the RJD chief. On the other hand, he has been vocal about his admiration of Nitish. One can recollect several instances wherein the junior Gandhi had praised the Bihar CM for his secular credentials even while he was an integral part of the NDA. In fact, this move was a master stroke; soon after the meeting, reports from the Congress camp suggested that INC would align with the JD-U irrespective of whether Lalu was with it or not. With the Gandhis turning their back on Lalu, the path was more or less clear for Kumar to head the anti-BJP plank. Moreover, Nitish's image as the man who transformed Bihar from Lalu's 'Jungle Raj' to one of the fastest growing states in India only further strengthened his prospects for the top post. As such, as the leaders of the Janata Parivaar met to discuss the course of action for the polls, the odds were comprehensively stacked in the favor of Nitish, forcing the wily Lalu to eat the humble pie.

The Nitish v/s Modi saga continues: With Kumar leading the mega coalition, the second part of the Modi - Nitish rivalry is all set to be played in the state of Bihar this winter. After walking out of the NDA over the candidature of the then Gujarat CM as the NDA candidate for the post of the Prime Minister, the Bihar CM was left with a bloody nose as Modi mania swept Bihar in May 2014, relegating the JD-U to a ignominious tally of two parliamentary seats. In a bid to save his face, Kumar resigned and handed power to his hand picked successor Jitin Ram Manjhi to appease the Maha Dalit community which voted for the BJP in the General Elections. In the mean time, following the realignment of the political forces in Bihar, Nitish and his new found allies - the RJD and the Congress managed to edge past the BJP by winning 6 of the 10 seats that went to the by-polls, a consolation victory of sorts. Ironically though, months later, as Manjhi transformed from a 'docile' leader into a 'clever' politician refusing to be 'controlled' by his party boss, Nitish expelled him from the JD-U and was himself back as the Bihar CM for the third time. With back to back political blunders, many were wondering if Nitish's astute acumen has deserted him and if his reign as Bihar's most powerful leader were numbered. And the man behind Nitish's unraveling was none other than his bete noire - Narendra Modi.

The Bihar polls is the perfect platform for Bihar CM to settle scores with the PM. A victory for the Janata Parivaar would be a jolt to the Modi bandwagon which hit a major road block when the AAP decimated the saffron party in Delhi earlier this year. A win would help Nitish regain most of the political pride that he had lost in the last two years and would re-establish him as a force to reckon with besides being a major fillip to the merger of the factions of the JP. However, there is a much bigger prize to be won, something that most political analysts have over looked thus far; after the General Polls, there is no 'credible' face to represent the anti-Modi or the non-NDA parties in the political sphere. The most obvious and legitimate choice to fill in this vacancy - Sonia Gandhi is not keeping well whereas the negativity still surrounding Rahul means that most believe that he is not yet 'mature' enough for the job. Regional satraps like Jayalalithaa and Patnaik who managed to fend off the Modi wave in their respective home turfs have been on cordial terms with the new government. Mamata Bannerjee has of late mellowed her anti-Modi rhetoric. The mess around AAP in the recent months has hit Arvind Kejriwal's popularity; the party's influence has not moved beyond the NCR in spite of that fabulous victory in February. A victory for the JP under Nitish would automatically catapult him to being the new anti-Modi face in Indian politics.

The Ground Realities: Though the coalition may have been announced, it remains to be seen how the talks regarding the seat sharing arrangements between the many constituents of this grand alliance progress in the coming weeks. Though the issue of the CM candidate has been settled for now, the basis for seat allocation has become another pain point for the two parties. The RJD wants the 2014 General Elections to be the basis to arrive at the seat sharing formula whereas the JD-U wants it to be the 2010 state polls. A bigger worry for the leaders of the alliance is whether their cadre and workers at the ground level are able to forget all the past differences and work together as a team. Considering the 'hatred' that the JD-U and the RJD have shared in the past, that seems to be a near impossible task. And lastly, will the alliance be able to break the caste barrier? For example, will a Yadav who has a loyal voter of the RJD for decades now vote for a JD-U nominee contesting as a candidate of the JP from his seat? Considering that the Yadavs harbour a special dislike for Kumar for ending their political dominance in Bihar, will they be comfortable with him as the CM candidate? Moreover, it remains to be seen how much damage will the Manjhi mishap cost in terms of the Extremely Backward Caste (EBC) votes. Surely, the modern day 'Chanakya' will have to put in all the 'Neeti' and perhaps, even some 'Kutneeti' to score a memorable hat-trick! 

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THIRD TIME LUCKY?

After winning the last two state elections, both in alliance with the BJP, it remains to be seen if the incumbent Bihar CM - Nitish Kumar can score a memorable hat-trick, this time around with his new found allies. For the JD-U supremo, the elections are more than just a political battle; in fact, it is a wonderful opportunity to settle scores with none other than the PM himself. Post his bitter fallout with the BJP following the elevation of the then Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as NDA's official Prime Ministerial nominee in late 2013, Kumar was forced to eat the humble pie after being reduced to two seats in the parliamentary polls even as the NDA put up an impressive tally of 32. An unexpected alliance with Lalu's RJD and the Congress helped him save his party's government, although he had to take moral responsibility for the Lok Sabha debacle and make way for his then trusted lieutenant Jitam Ram Manjhi for the post of CM. The move back-fired as Manjhi began to become more assertive, undermining Nitish's hold on the state government. However, the astute politician that he is, Kumar was back at the helm of affairs within months of resigning and has even been declared by the Janta Parivaar (JP) as its official CM candidate for the Bihar polls.

WHAT 'VICTORY' MEANS TO NITISH KUMAR AND THE JD-U?

A spate of political blunders along with a few electoral miscalculations has reduced the once powerful Bihar chieftain to a mere shadow of his past. Months before the 2014 polls, he was looked upon by many as a potential PM candidate in case of a hung Parliament. Alas, post the drubbing that the JD-U received in the Lok Sabha elections last year, many were left wondering if the 'Chanakya' would ever rise again from the ashes and script a political comeback. From Nitish's perspective, the upcoming state polls is the perfect opportunity to put the horrors that he has been through in the last two years behind him and catapult himself into the big league of strong regional satraps that presently includes Mamta, Jayalalithaa, Patnaik and Mulayum.

Nitish Kumar - Facebook

A win for Nitish is easier said than done; apart from an upbeat NDA, another head-ache for Nitish is to make sure that the parties that he is leading - the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) work together as a team. Most of these parties till very recently were at logger-heads with each other and keeping them together amidst the heat of the battle is going to be an arduous task within itself. Apart from seat-sharing arrangements, he also has to use all his political acumen in handling the egos of other prominent leaders including his friend-turned-foe-turned-friend Lalu Prasad Yadav. Another problem is to make sure that the cadre of the four parties put up a united show to combat the NDA. Lastly, we know that in a state infested with caste based politics, each of Bihar's political parties has its own strong vote bank; it is extremely crucial that the votes loyal to individual parties are transferred to the coalition as a whole so that the consolidation can help it overcome the challenge posed by the NDA. In fact, a win here in the advent of all these differences will be an ode to the leadership qualities of Nitish Kumar, thereby making him the undisputed No. 2 within the ranks of the JP. At 64, Nitish is still young by our political standards and if he continues to do well, he will succeed Mulayum as the leader of the new formation. Moreover, a win for the Kumar led combine will also give a much needed impetus to the merger of the various constituents of the regional formation which could turn into a major threat to the NDA in the coming future.

The Bihar polls is more than a fight between the NDA and the JP; it is the second installment of the epic fight between the PM Narendra Modi and the JD-U chief. While Modi was still the CM of Gujarat, Nitish had at many times taken pot-shots at him in a bid to appease his minority vote bank. On several occasions he had asked the former to stay away from his state during campaigning and had even returned the money that the Gujarat strong man had given as relief to the victims during the 2009 Bihar floods. Unfortunately, it was Modi who had the last laugh as Modi-mania swept Bihar, reducing the JD-U to shambles last May. Besides stepping down from the post of the CM, Kumar also had to take some tough decisions like compromising on his ideological principles and forging an alliance with his bête noire Lalu Yadav. It is but natural that he is now seeking vengeance and the best way to avenge his losses is by beating the BJP led NDA in the all important state of Bihar.

A BATTLE WITHIN A BATTLE: THE NITISH-LALU SAGA

People aware of the political conditions in the state will know that there is a battle being fought between Nitish and Lalu amidst all the bonhomie that they put up in front of the media. Back in the early nineties, the JD-U chief and the RJD supremo were comrades within the then Janata Party. However, they soon fell apart as Yadav broke the party to launch the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and thus began one of the most bitter rivalries in Indian politics. The bad blood between them continued for nearly two decades during which both leaders dominated the state politics for a period of a decade each. However, the need to remain relevant in the aftermath of BJP's astounding win in 2014 prompted them to dissolve their differences and join hands. However, differences still remain; besides seat sharing arrangements, both wanted the CM chair for themselves or their candidates. As such it is hardly surprising that though he may not be eligible for holding the post of the CM following his conviction in the Fodder Scam, Yadav is certainly not very pleased with Nitish's anointment as the JP's Chief Ministerial nominee.

No wonder then that though he is leading the strong formation against the BJP, Nitish has to somehow make sure that the JD-U gets more seats than the RJD. Though he may have been named as the coalition's leader, knowing the 'cunning fox' that Lalu is, he could easily create a ruckus post the elections and may force the JP to reconsider its decision. In that scenario, if the RJD has more MLAs than the JD-U, he could well have his way and force Nitish Kumar to sit out. As such, to be sure that he does not face any sort of threat or black mail from the Yadav strong man anytime in the future, Nitish should work towards maximizing his numbers so that the JD-U is the largest constituent of the coalition once the results are announced.

WHAT 'DEFEAT' MEANS TO NITISH KUMAR AND THE JD-U?

A defeat to the JP in the upcoming polls will be a monumental disaster for the JD-U and more so, for its leader Nitish Kumar. Apart from five years of political isolation, he will be relegated to the position of a minor player in state as well as national politics. Certainly, following the humiliation that he has gone through in the last couple of years, this is the last thing that Kumar would wish for. Moreover, a win for the NDA will only enhance the stature of his political foe - Narendra Modi. And as if all this was not enough, a loss for the coalition will give Lalu Prasad an opportunity to squarely put the blame of the defeat on Nitish in a bid to earn some political brownie points while exonerating himself.

Lastly, the loss in Bihar will also be in some ways, the death knell for the Janta Parivaar. The only reason that has united former enemies Lalu and Nitish is the prospect of victory and the need to stay relevant within political circles. However, a defeat in Bihar will change all this. Since there will be no incentive to stay together in wake of all the ideological differences, the two parties will rather prefer staying independent, isn't it? Give it a thought!

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